Risk assessment and hotspot monitoring
- Description
- Notable Practices
- Images and Audio
- References
Assessing risk often starts with a review of prior railroad safety events and, looking for patterns in the data which may indicate areas with more incidents than expected. Risk may be assessed broadly across a railroad system, along a specific corridor, or even more locally within a community. FRA, railroad, state, and local agencies have explored various methods to analyze risk related to trespassing. One such method is the location-based, trespass hazard assessment methodology developed by the Volpe Center [1]. This method (adapted from Long Island Rail Road) determines the risk severity for each track segment along a corridor by adding a weighted value to different types of unsafe events, such as fatalities, injuries and near misses.
Geospatial analysis and visualization tools are often helpful in risk assessment, as well as other data management or statistical software to help identify patterns within the data [2]. For example, one study employed geospatial methods to identify communities with the highest risk of trespass per capita [3]. In addition to analyzing trespass and suicide fatalities and injuries, expanding the assessment to include close-calls and trespassing activity (without incident) will provide a more comprehensive view of overall risk.
Knowing where incidents have occurred in the past is helpful for prioritizing resources, especially if hotspot locations are identified through this process. Hotspot locations may require additional attention and more detailed analysis to understand the factors that contribute to this elevated risk. Monitoring these hotspots over time is important to understand if the location remains at elevated risk or if resources may be put towards other locations or priorities.
When a hotspot involves suicide incidents, it may also be called a suicide cluster, which refers to a series of suicide fatalities or attempts that happen closer together in time, space, or both, than would typically be anticipated. Distinguishing a hotspot due to suicide from a trespassing hotspot is important in order to select an effective mitigation response. In 2024, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) published specific guidance on identifying suicide clusters, see Resources tab for more information.
Some evidence suggests that suicides may be underreported both generally and in FRA data. FRA only reports a death as a suicide if a coroner or other official authority has ruled it a suicide and until then is reported to FRA data as a non-suicide. This practice is referred to as a “reporting default” which may be a significant factor in the underreporting of suicides by rail [4]. Awareness of this reporting default can help to avoid misinterpretation of public data and highlights the value of pursuing additional data sources. Accurate data is essential to identify hotspots, select appropriate countermeasures, and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions [5].
When conducting a detailed risk assessment, consider including the following types of data (see Notable Practices for additional details):
- Behaviors prior to train strike events
- Close call data and trespass activity
- Built environment, such as:
- Access points to the tracks or property
- Locations of current fences or other barriers
- Train speed, frequency, and track visibility
Additional search terms: analysis, data, hotspots
- Public data sources (see Resources tab) can be useful for communities and others outside of the railroad industry who are interested in identifying problem areas or pursuing mitigations. National suicide and trespass data starting from June 2011 is readily available from the FRA safety website and dashboard (see Resources tab). Note, however, that location information is not provided for suicide incidents.
- Seek additional data sources, such as video data, train crew and bystander interviews, to identify common motivations for trespassing. This may be helpful in forming a more complete picture of trespass risk, as it can be challenging to identify specific reasons for trespassing based on aggregate data [6].
- Consider including close-call and trespass activity data when conducting risk assessment, if available. Examples include train crew observations, video of specific locations, and trespass violation data reported by local law enforcement. Close-call information may rely on the Confidential Close Call Reporting System (C3RS) or internal railroad data collection.
- Identify access points including worn paths leading across the tracks, which may provide some insight into the potential motivations of a trespasser and can help to guide mitigation selection.
- Consider the built environment around worn paths leading to the tracks . For example, evidence of a convenient cut-through from a residential area to a local shopping plaza, laundry, medical facility, school or other services. These paths indicate a need within the community to frequently cross the tracks in that area. Consider how to encourage choosing safer routes to designated crossings alongside efforts to restrict access to the right-of-way.
- Consider analyzing a variety of factors. This includes train frequency, train speed, population density, proximity of the ROW to areas with foot traffic, proximity to crossings [7][8][9], the built environment, and motivations or reasons for trespassing.
- Document where mitigations, such as fences, are currently installed as this can help understand locations where countermeasures have been ineffective, and where they are effective.
- Consider how nearby businesses, services, and institutions may impact trespass, especially relative to the locations of residential areas. Additionally, consider how trespassing risk may change throughout the year [4]. For example, trespassing activity near a university may increase during the school year or during sporting events.
Images:
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Audio:
[1] DaSilva, M. and Ngamdung, T. (2014). Trespass Prevention Research Study – West Palm Beach, FL. Technical Report No. DOT/FRA/ORD-14/19. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration.
Abstract: The United States Department of Transportation’s (U.S. DOT) Research and Innovative Technology Administration’s John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center), under the direction of the U.S. DOT Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) Office of Research and Development (R&D), conducted a Trespass Prevention Research Study (TPRS) in the city of West Palm Beach, FL. The main objective of this research was to demonstrate potential benefits, including best practices and lessons learned, of implementation and evaluation of trespass prevention strategies following FRA’s and Transport Canada’s existing trespassing prevention guidance on the rail network in West Palm Beach, FL, and all of its rights-of-way.
This report documents the results of the implementation of the guidance discussed in this study. The results of the trespass prevention strategies will be analyzed to help determine areas of potential risk, develop solutions to prevent and minimize risk exposure, and implement successful countermeasures in the future. The ultimate objective of the research is to aid in the development of national recommendations or guidelines to reduce trespass-related incidents and fatalities.
[2] Oswald Beiler, M. R., Miller, G., & Varley, D. (2018). Railway Trespass Prevention: Spatial Analysis of Incidents to Connect to Countermeasures. Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, 145(2).
Abstract: Railway incidents continue to be a safety concern for transportation agencies throughout the United States. In particular, trespasser incidents, which are the most frequent cause of railway fatalities in the United States, are those that involve a person whose presence is prohibited or actions are unlawful involving railway property. By analyzing past data on trespassing incidents, recommendations for future improvement through countermeasures can be made. This research investigates historical trespasser incidents throughout national Amtrak data from 2011–2017. The data were analyzed at the national as well as megaregional levels in order to determine trends using 14 factors, including both incident (such as time of day, precrash activity, and gender) as well as geographic (such as population density and average income based on the census level in which the incident occurred) factors. A case study on a segment of Amtrak’s northeast corridor alignment is provided in order to serve as an example of connecting to countermeasure recommendations.
[3] Cunningham, C., Vaughan, C., Searcy, S., Aghdashi, B., Lu, G., Horne, D., and Maychak, N. (2016). Reduction in Railroad Right-of-Way Trespassing Incidents. Technical Report, FHWA/NC/2015-18. Raleigh, NC: North Carolina Department of Transportation.
Abstract: This research analyzed Federal Railroad Administration (FRA)-reported trespassing events along the North Carolina Railroad (NCRR) between Raleigh and Charlotte, NC using rate calculation, train crew surveys, and geospatial methods to identify communities with the highest risk of railroad right-of-way trespass. Since the FRA started geolocating trespass data in July 2011 through June 2016, this corridor had 65 reported trespasser strikes, or an average of one strike for every 677 trains. Based on an analysis of historic trespass strike data, associated environmental features, and survey data provided by train crews who travel along the portion of the NCRR under study, the communities with the highest trespass risk are Durham, Mebane, Elon/Burlington, and Greensboro. The rate of strikes from the 5 year study period indicates that these communities have the highest risk corridors. The close proximity of pedestrian generators to the railroad in these areas shows some correlation to the high number of strikes.
[4] Topel, K. (2022). Do U.S. Rail Safety Statistics Undercount Suicides? Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2676(9).
Abstract: Rail safety researchers have long suspected that U.S. accidental rail trespassing tallies include some suicides, that is, that suicides are undercounted relative to accidents. Reports issued by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) imply that suicides account for less than 30% of total deaths, whereas other countries show a much higher proportion of suicides, sometimes as high as 80% of total rail deaths. The purpose of the present research was to gain insight into this question by evaluating whether official manner of death determinations are correctly reflected in FRA reports. All FRA railroad fatality records for the state of Illinois for 2019 were compared with police reports, coroner/medical examiner manner of death determinations, and online media coverage. These sources indicated that less than half of official suicides were reported correctly in FRA reports and that over 50% of all fatalities were a result of suicide. It was also found that the primary reason for the considerable undercount of suicides was FRA reporting defaults and a breakdown in the process of railroads separating accidents from suicides; it was not a reluctance or delay on the part of local authorities to declare the death as intentional.
[5] Andersson, A.-L., Liss, G., & Sokolowski, M. (2025). Accident or suicide? New registration procedures and improved classification of suicide vs accident deaths on the swedish railways: an interrupted time series analysis of 2000-2023. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 34, 101650.
Death by suicide is a major societal issue, affecting railways in particular. However, the numbers of suicides have likely been underestimated, by being misclassified as accidents. In the year 2016, Sweden finalized the introduction of more extensive investigation procedures to resolve more deaths by suicide. Before year 2016, railway fatalities with undetermined suicidal intent were simply classified as accidents by default, unless forensic autopsies or police decided otherwise. During the years 2016–2023, all fatalities were evaluated by using a special investigation form and undetermined or drug use deaths were further investigated by a psychosocial investigator. An expert group then classified these deaths as suicide or accident. We evaluated the effect of these altered procedures by interrupted time series (ITS) models using the official statistics concerning the percentage of deaths reported as suicides (%suicides). Over the entire study period, %suicides increased from ~75 % to ~87 %. Using ITS models accounting for a roll-in implementation period (2012–2016), displayed the best fit compared to alternative competing models, as well as a significant increase of %suicides by at least ~4 % during the period after 2016 per se and ~10 % if including the roll-in period. The effect after 2016 was mediated by a decline in the official accident counts, but more detailed classification data suggested that this was rather due to a reduction of undetermined causes of deaths. We conclude that the more extensive classification procedures reduced the misclassification of suicides as accidents, whereby we recommend its continued usage.
[6] Searcy, S., Vaughan, C., Coble, D., Poslusny, J., & Cunningham, C. (2020). Rail Network Trespass Statewide Severity Assessment and Predictive Modeling. FHWA/NC/2019-08
Abstract: The Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) at NC State University in collaboration with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) has conducted research to develop a more complete understanding of the extent of pedestrian trespassing along the rail network in North Carolina. This research seeks to better quantify and describe the universe of trespassing activities including those events that do not result in injury or death through the development and testing of static (fixed base) thermal camera systems. Thermal camera systems were deployed at a sample of trespassing hot spots along railroad corridors in North Carolina to determine a count of trespassing events for the data collection time periods and an estimate of the trespassing frequency at the hot spots. Using these trespassing event data, models for estimating and predicting trespassing across the rail network were developed. The data were also used to develop profiles of trespassing activity by season of year, month of year, day of week, and hour of day for each hot spot location that can inform local-level intervention strategies.
[7] Stanchak, K. and DaSilva, M. (2014). Trespass Event Risk Factors. Technical Report No. DOT/FRA/ORD-14/32. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration.
Abstract: The Volpe Center has used three sources of data—the Federal Railroad Administration’s required accident reports, locomotive video, and U.S. Census data—to investigate common risk factors for railroad trespassing incidents, the leading cause of rail related deaths in the U.S. Risk factors found include (1) a disregard for grade crossing warning signs, (2) trespasser intoxication, (3) use of distracting electronic devices, and (4) right-of-way proximity to stations, bridges, and rail yards. This research report offers several suggestions for improved data availability to support future studies.
Description: FRA specific data dashboards to explore. Each dashboard provides a different set of data and capability to filter and search within the data available.
Confidential Close Call Reporting System (3CRS) – Website
Description: The Confidential Close Call Reporting System (C3RS) is a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), in conjunction with participating railroad carriers and labor organizations. The program is designed to improve railroad safety by collecting and analyzing reports which describe unsafe conditions and events in the railroad industry. Employees will be able to report safety issues or “close calls” voluntarily and confidentially.
Description: The U.S. Department of Transportation public data portal that provides a variety of data across all transportation modes, including rail and public transit.